The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios. The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.
It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.